El Nino might make California a ski haven this winter. Â It also might not change anything. Â It also might make things worse than they already are (which is scary to imagine…). Â The reality is that the past 7Â Weak El Ninos show that El Nino in California, as far as precipitation goes, it essentially a 50/50 coin toss.
According to NOAA, this year, it’s looking like we’ll most likely experience a Weak El Nino in the USA. Â These graphs show us what the past 7 Weak El Ninos looked like precipitation-wise in California.
Of course, as skiers, we’ll never see El Nino as a 50/50 coin toss. Â El Nino means one thing and one thing only. Â We’re thinking 1983’s record breaking snowfall. Â 1998’s persistent bilzzards. Â 1995’s insane snowpack.
The numbers displayed here in these graphs show reality, not skier dream seasons. Â California has always had a way of coming through for us when we need her most. Â With this in mind, we know she’ll come through for us this year. Â We need a big one, Cali.
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Hell, even a 90% year after what we’ve had would be awesome.
1977 did NOT make the cut…
According to http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/mei.html 1977 did make the cut as mild El Nino. I have the following seasons as mild El Nino (strongest to weakest, California ski area percent of normal)
1993 143%
1995 159%
2003 91%
1980 113%
1988 60%
2005 135%
1978 130%
2007 65%
So average is 112%, but 2 of the 8 seasons were comparable to what the Sierra has suffered the past 3 years.
I’m curious what the differences were between the ’77 and ’78 weak el ninos.