El Nino might make California a ski haven this winter. It also might not change anything. It also might make things worse than they already are (which is scary to imagine…). The reality is that the past 7 Weak El Ninos show that El Nino in California, as far as precipitation goes, it essentially a 50/50 coin toss.
According to NOAA, this year, it’s looking like we’ll most likely experience a Weak El Nino in the USA. These graphs show us what the past 7 Weak El Ninos looked like precipitation-wise in California.
Of course, as skiers, we’ll never see El Nino as a 50/50 coin toss. El Nino means one thing and one thing only. We’re thinking 1983’s record breaking snowfall. 1998’s persistent bilzzards. 1995’s insane snowpack.
The numbers displayed here in these graphs show reality, not skier dream seasons. California has always had a way of coming through for us when we need her most. With this in mind, we know she’ll come through for us this year. We need a big one, Cali.
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Hell, even a 90% year after what we’ve had would be awesome.
1977 did NOT make the cut…
According to http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/mei.html 1977 did make the cut as mild El Nino. I have the following seasons as mild El Nino (strongest to weakest, California ski area percent of normal)
1993 143%
1995 159%
2003 91%
1980 113%
1988 60%
2005 135%
1978 130%
2007 65%
So average is 112%, but 2 of the 8 seasons were comparable to what the Sierra has suffered the past 3 years.
I’m curious what the differences were between the ’77 and ’78 weak el ninos.