[UPDATED] NOAA February 2025 Outlook: Colder With More Precipitation Than Normal for PNW and Northern Rockies

The NOAA just released its outlook for February 2025. It’s looking good for northern regions, and also the northeast.

tl;dr: La Niña conditions are expected to influence February 2025 weather patterns across the United States. The forecast predicts above-normal temperatures for much of the southern and eastern U.S., while the northern regions may experience below-normal temperatures. Precipitation is likely to be above-normal in the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and much of the northern and central U.S., with below-normal precipitation expected in the Southwest, southern Plains, and Southeast.

• Related: [UPDATED: December 20] NOAA Winter 2024-25 Forecast: La Niña and the Rest of the Ski Season

A summary is below, and the full discussion at the bottom.

February 2025 Winter Weather Outlook

The National Weather Service has released its 30-day outlook for February 2025, providing valuable insights for ski and snowboard enthusiasts. This forecast considers various factors, including La Niña conditions, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, to predict temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States.

Temperature Predictions

Below-normal temperatures are expected in key ski regions of the Western United States. The forecast indicates increased chances of colder-than-average conditions from the Pacific Northwest eastward across portions of the Intermountain region, far northern Rockies, and the northern Great Plains. This could mean excellent conditions for maintaining snow cover at many ski resorts in these areas.

However, the southern and eastern parts of the country are likely to experience above-normal temperatures. Florida and portions of Georgia and South Carolina are predicted to experience the highest probabilities (60-70%) of warmer weather. Ski resorts in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic might face challenges if this warmer trend extends to their regions.

Precipitation Outlook

Good news for powder hounds in the West! The forecast predicts increased chances of above-normal precipitation from northern and central California and the Pacific Northwest eastward across the northern Intermountain region to eastern Montana. The highest probabilities (60-70%) are indicated for the Coastal Ranges and Cascades of the Pacific Northwest, extending southward across the Klamath range and northern and central Sierras of California.

The first week of February looks particularly promising for the West Coast. Predictions suggest 3-8+ inches of precipitation (liquid equivalent) associated with atmospheric river activity. This could translate to significant snowfall at higher elevations, potentially creating excellent conditions for skiing and snowboarding.

The outlook is mixed for other regions. Above-normal precipitation is favored across most of the Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes region, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, most of the Appalachians, and interior portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. However, drier conditions are expected in the Southwest, including eastern Arizona, most New Mexico, and western and southern portions of Texas.

Implications for Skiers and Snowboarders

Western ski resorts, particularly those in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, may experience ideal conditions in February 2025. Combining below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation could result in excellent snow accumulation and preservation.

Resorts in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic should be monitored closely. While interior portions may see increased precipitation, the general trend toward warmer temperatures could affect snow quality and coverage, especially at lower elevations.

Southern ski areas might face challenges. The forecast for above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation in parts of the South could lead to less favorable skiing conditions.

As always, local conditions can vary significantly from broader regional forecasts, so checking specific resort reports closer to your planned ski dates is advisable.

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEBRUARY 2025 
 
The updated monthly temperature and precipitation outlooks for February 2025 
are based primarily on WPC’s Week-1 temperature and precipitation forecasts, 
two-week GEFS and European Prediction System (EPS) ensemble mean temperature 
and precipitation dynamical forecasts, CPC’s Week-2 and Weeks 3-4 temperature 
and precipitation outlooks, subseasonal GEFS/CFSv2 guidance, the most recent 
runs of the monthly CFSv2 temperature and precipitation forecasts, and on weak 
La Niña composites. In addition, the latest information regarding the Madden 
Julian Oscillation (MJO), snow cover, Great Lakes ice coverage, and the latest 
30-day temperature and precipitation observations were also considered. 
 
The updated temperature outlook for February 2025 calls for increased chances 
of below normal temperatures over southeastern Alaska, and from the Pacific 
Northwest and the northern half of California eastward across portions of the 
Intermountain region and far northern Rockies, the northern third of the Great 
Plains, northern portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula 
of Michigan. This is based on a subjective consensus of the various official 
outlooks and model runs noted earlier that comprise the monthly time period. 
Above normal temperature chances are elevated for much of the southern and 
eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS). Maximum probabilities of 60-70% are depicted 
over Florida and portions of Georgia and South Carolina. In the eastern CONUS, 
this is consistent with MJO lagged temperature composites with the enhanced 
convective phase propagating through the Maritime Continent region. However, it 
is noted that the composites also show a trend towards colder temperatures in 
the East towards the end of February. The widespread coverage of favored above 
normal temperatures across much of the CONUS is supported by historical La Niña 
composites, the CFSv2, and the subseasonal GEFS-CFSv2 temperature guidance. 
Above normal temperatures are also favored over approximately the northern and 
western halves of Mainland Alaska, based on GEFS and EPS 2-meter temperature 
anomalies through the first half of February, the CFSv2 model, and GEFS-CFSv2 
subseasonal temperature guidance. Equal Chances (EC) of below, near, and above 
normal temperatures are favored for remaining areas where models and tools 
displayed weak and/or conflicting signals . 
 
The updated precipitation outlook for February 2025 depicts increased chances 
of above normal precipitation from northern and central California and the 
Pacific Northwest eastward across the northern Intermountain region to eastern 
Montana. Maximum probabilities of 60-70% are indicated for the Coastal Ranges 
and Cas cades of the Pacific Northwest, extending southward across the Klamath 
range and northern and central Sierras of California. This broad pattern of 
favored above normal precipitation is generally consistent with historical La 
Niña precipitation composites. For the West Coast area, anywhere from 3-8+ 
inches of precipitation (liquid equivalent) is predicted to fall within the 
first week of February associated with atmospheric river activity. Chances 
favoring above normal precipitation are also elevated across most of the 
Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes region, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, most of 
the Appalachians, and interior portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. 
Maximum probabilities of 50-60% are depicted from the vicinity of the 
Mississippi-Ohio River Confluence northeastward across most of the eastern half 
of the Great Lakes region. This is consistent with much of the objective model 
guidance and La Niña composites, and denotes the expected location of the mean 
storm track. Odds favoring below normal precipitation are enhanced for eastern 
Arizona, most of New Mexico, western and southern portions of Texas, and much 
of the Southern Atlantic region. These favored areas of relative dryness are 
commonly observed during La Niña winters, though the indicated spatial coverage 
of below normal precipitation is significantly reduced relative to moderate or 
strong La Niña composites. Maximum odds of 50-60% favoring below normal 
precipitation are indicated over southern Florida. For Alaska, a combination of 
dynamical model guidance and La Niña composites slightly favors above normal 
precipitation chances over northern, central, and western Mainland Alaska, 
continuing southwestward across much of the Aleutians, and below normal 
precipitation chances over parts of southcentral and southeastern Mainland 
Alaska. Equal Chances (EC) of below, near, and above normal precipitation is 
favored for remaining areas where models and tools displayed weak and/or 
conflicting signals . 
 
—- The 0.5-month lead message for the February 2025 outlooks is shown below: —- 
 
The long-awaited transition from a neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 
to a weak La Niña finally occurred during December 2024, with the latest weekly 
value of the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) of -0.7C for the Niño 3.4 region. 
Below-average sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) now dominate the central and 
east-central Pacific with significant subsurface cooling to a depth of 100-200 
meters. Broad expanses of enhanced (suppressed) tropical convection are noted 
over the vicinity of Indonesia (Date Line), with persistently enhanced 
low-level trade winds over the western and central near-equatorial Pacific. La 
Niña conditions are expected to persist through the Feb-Mar-Apr (FMA) 2025 
season with odds of 59 percent, followed by a nearly equally likely transition 
to ENSO-neutral starting in Mar-Apr-May (MAM) 2025. 
 
In addition to La Niña being the expected primary driver of the atmospheric 
circulation pattern in February, there is significant forcing associated with 
the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The AO 
index has been negative during the past two weeks, which has likely contributed 
to the current cold snap across the central and eastern contiguous U.S. 
(CONUS). The AO index is forecast to transition toward its positive phase in 
the next 2 weeks, which may signify at least a brief reprieve from the 
persistent influence of Arctic air masses over this portion of the country. In 
the tropics, the convectively enhanced phase of the MJO is currently in the 
Western Hemisphere, near the interface of Realtime Multivariate MJO (RMM) 
Phases 8 and 1. During the past 10-14 days, there has been a very significant 
increase in amplitude of the MJO signal, though there has been little eastward 
propagation. Most RMM-based MJO Index forecasts predict a high-amplitude MJO 
accelerating to phase speeds more consistent of a convectively-coupled Kelvin 
Wave, as the signal traverses the remainder of the Western Hemisphere, Africa, 
the Indian Ocean, and reaches the Maritime Continent during the next two-week 
period. Historically, an MJO signal propagating eastward across the Indian 
Ocean and Maritime Continent favors a warm response downstream over the central 
and eastern CONUS towards the end of January, but this is contradicted by most 
dynamical model guidance which favors the continuation of below normal 
temperatures across this region. 
 
Other considerations for the February outlooks include coastal SSTs, sea and 
lake ice, and snow cover. At the present time, near to primarily above normal 
SSTs prevail near the West Coast of the CONUS, the western and central Gulf 
Coast, and near the southwest coast of Alaska. Below normal SSTs are observed 
near the coast of the Northeast CONUS. Most of the Alaska coast as far south as 
Kuskokwim Bay (Southwest Alaska) is dominated by sea ice. Over the Lower 48 
states, the Great Lakes remain mostly ice-free as of mid-January, with 
relatively shallow Lake Erie being the most likely to freeze over during the 
next few weeks. Current snow cover is widespread across the northern and 
central CONUS, with associated radiational cooling helping to keep surface 
temperatures lower over this area. 
 
The monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks for February are based on 
historical La Niña composites and regressions and the secondary forcings  
described above, as well as on dynamical and statistical model support. 
Dynamical support is derived from dynamical model suites including the North 
American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), Copernicus Climate Suite (C3S), and from 
the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) dynamical model. Statistical 
support comes largely from a combined ENSO-OCN tool, and to a lesser degree the 
Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). CPC’s official outlooks for Weeks 3-4, 
and monthly and submonthly temperature and precipitation guidance from the 
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), CFSv2, and European Centre for 
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) models are also used in the preparation 
of the February Outlooks, though it is important to note that these forecasts 
only cover the first half of February. 
 
The February 2025 Temperature Outlook features elevated odds of above normal 
temperatures over the vicinity of the Four Corners states/Southwest, southern 
Plains, Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, the Southeast, Upper Ohio 
Valley, most of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Probabilities of 
above normal temperatures reach 50 to 60 percent over parts of the southern 
Rockies. This broad pattern is characteristic of part of the typical cold 
season La Niña signature, and is supported by available models and tools such 
as the dynamical consolidation (NMME CON), NMME Probability Anomaly Correlated 
(PAC) calibrated forecasts, C3S, and recent runs of the CFSv2. Below normal 
temperature chances are enhanced from the Pacific Northwest eastward across 
much of Montana, the Northern and Central Plains, and the Upper Mississippi 
Valley. This is supported by the statistical consolidation (Stat CON), recent 
runs of the CFSv2, the ENSO-OCN tool which combines influences of ENSO and 
trends, and the ECMWF and Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD, German model) which are 
constituents of the Copernicus model Suite (C3S). Other constituents such as 
the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) and Meteo-France models appear to be too 
warm overall. This broad area of favored anomalous cold is also very typical of 
classic wintertime La Niña events. In Alaska, many tools support some variation 
on the classic La Niña theme which is characterized by increased chances for 
below normal mean temperatures across southcentral and southeast Alaska, and 
increased chances for above normal mean temperatures confined to northwest 
portions of the Mainland. 
 
The February 2025 Precipitation Outlook features elevated odds for above normal 
precipitation from the Pacific Northwest eastward across the Northern 
Intermountain region and Northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. This is 
generally associated with the Pacific jet stream as it traverses much of the 
northern CONUS. One of the few dissenting opinions comes from the Stat CON 
(specifically the CCA input) which favors below normal precipitation across the 
Pacific Northwest and was discounted for this particular forecast. Above normal 
precipitation chances are also increased for much of the Mississippi Valley, 
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, Great Lakes region, central and northern 
Appalachians, and interior portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. 
Probabilities of above normal precipitation reach 50 to 60 percent percent from 
the central Great Lakes region southwestward towards the Missouri Bootheel. 
This second region of favored anomalous storminess is associated with a typical 
meandering of the jetstream across this region and the resulting mean storm 
track, and is consistent with many of the precipitation tools. Approximately 
half of the available tools forecast above normal precipitation reaching the 
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts, and while this is certainly reasonable with 
individual cyclonic systems, the La Niña storm track on average tends to be 
shifted farther inland. There are enhanced odds of below normal precipitation 
from far southern California generally eastward across much of the Four Corners 
region, the central and southern High Plains, much of Texas, far southern 
Mississippi Valley, and a large portion of the Southeast as far north as the 
Tidewater area of southeastern Virginia. Probabilities reach 50 to 60 percent 
over the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley, and also most of Florida, 
southeastern Georgia, and nearby parts of South Carolina. This broad region of 
favored drier than normal conditions is consistent with the typical La Niña 
footprint, and is well supported by many tools, such as the Stat and NMME CONs 
and the CFSv2 to name a few. Over Alaska, above normal precipitation chances 
are elevated over most of the Mainland north of the Alaska Range, with a sliver 
of slightly enhanced below normal precipitation chances over parts of 
southcentral and southeastern Mainland Alaska. These predicted anomalies are 
generally consistent with mean surface high pressure and mid-level ridging over 
the Gulf of Alaska during La Niña events. 
 
FORECASTER: Anthony Artusa