NOAA February 2024 Outlook: California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona Might Be Favorable for Skiing Conditions

The NOAA recently released its outlook for February. For skiers or those seeking snow, the above-normal precipitation in regions like California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona might be favorable for skiing conditions, especially in higher altitudes where temperatures remain cold enough for snow. However, the warmer temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska might limit snowfall or lead to faster melting. The below-normal precipitation in the Northeast and Great Lakes regions might mean less snowfall than usual in these traditionally snowy areas.

• Related: NOAA ENSO January 2024 Update: El Niño Reaching Peak Strength | 60% Chance of La Niña in Late-Summer/Fall

Below is an AI generated simplified summary, and also the full discussion from the NOAA for those who understand meteorological language.

Alaska

• Temperature: Above normal temperatures expected over all of Alaska, with higher chances for the south coast and Southeast Alaska.
• Precipitation: Above normal precipitation is likely for the south coast of Mainland Alaska and the northern Alaska Panhandle.

Pacific Northwest (U.S.)

• Temperature: High probability of above normal temperatures, especially in the Pacific Northwest.

California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona

• Temperature: Not specifically mentioned, but these regions often follow trends similar to the Pacific Northwest.
• Precipitation: Above normal precipitation is favored, particularly in Central and Southern California, extending northeastward into parts of Nevada, Utah, and Arizona.

Southeastern U.S. (Including Florida)

• Temperature: Enhanced probabilities of near-normal temperatures in parts of the Southeast.
• Precipitation: Above normal precipitation is likely, especially in the Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula.

Central Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Eastern Great Lakes, Northern New England

• Precipitation: Below normal precipitation is favored in these regions.

General Observations

• The forecast is largely influenced by a strong El Niño pattern, which typically affects temperature and precipitation patterns across North America.
• The forecast also considers various models and factors like sea surface temperature anomalies, wind patterns, and recent climate trends.

Below is the full discussion from the NOAA:

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEBRUARY 2024 
 
The February 2024 monthly temperature and precipitation outlooks are made with 
strong current El Niño climate conditions. The most recent weekly and seasonal 
Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are both at +1.9 degrees 
Celsius. SST anomalies over the central and east-central equatorial Pacific 
Ocean have remained steady over the last month, while positive SST anomalies 
over the far eastern equatorial Pacific have weakened slightly. In recent 
weeks, lower level wind anomalies at 850 hPa were westerly over the 
east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper level wind anomalies at 200 
hPa were easterly over the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. 
Negative outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies are present near the Date 
Line and north of the equator over the eastern Pacific Ocean, indicating 
anomalously enhanced convection. These ocean and atmosphere conditions indicate 
that the ongoing strong El Niño is well coupled to the atmosphere. El Niño 
remains a primary driver of temperature and precipitation patterns over North 
America in the near future and in the February temperature and precipitation 
outlooks. On subseasonal timescales, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is 
active in phase 4 with enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent, with 
dynamical model forecasts indicating that the MJO will propagate eastward into 
the western Pacific in the next couple weeks. Lagged composites indicate that 
this active MJO would increase temperatures over the eastern United States in 
the next couple weeks, before returning to potentially cooler temperatures, 
especially over the Northeast, in early February. Impacts of the MJO were 
generally only considered in the February monthly outlook through dynamical 
model forecasts for the week 3-4 period that overlap with the first half of 
February. 
 
The February temperature and precipitation outlooks were based primarily on a 
skill-weighted consolidation of dynamical model forecasts and a combined 
consolidation of the statistical and dynamical model forecasts. Dynamical model 
forecasts for the month of February are from the North America Multimodel 
Ensemble (NMME). In addition, the full consolidation includes a consolidation 
of the statistical models: the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), the 
Constructed Analog (CA), and an ENSO OCN tool, that combines the impact of 
ENSO, based on the CPC SST consolidation predicted median Niño 3.4 SST anomaly, 
with the Optimum Climate Normal (OCN) representing decadal trends . Daily 
initialized forecasts from the NCEP CFSv2 dynamical model, the most recent 
ECMWF and GEFS dynamical model forecasts for the week 3-4 period that overlaps 
the beginning of the month of February, and a statistical multivariate linear 
regression (MLR) forecast for the first half of February using the current Niño 
3.4 and MJO indices as predictors, were also considered. Recent boundary 
conditions, including coastal SSTs, snow cover anomalies, and soil moisture 
anomalies, were additional factors considered. 
 
The February temperature outlook favors above normal temperatures over all of 
Alaska, consistent with dynamical model guidance and the monthly temperature 
consolidation. Above normal temperatures are more likely for the south coast of 
Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska, consistent with canonical El Niño 
impacts. Above normal temperatures are favored across the northern tier of the 
contiguous U.S. (CONUS), supported by the consolidation of statistical and 
dynamical forecast tools. Probabilities for above normal temperatures exceed 50 
percent over the Pacific Northwest, due to strong signals  in the NMME 
consolidation. Equal chances (EC) of below, near and above normal temperatures 
are indicated in the February outlook across much of the southern tier of the 
CONUS, due to conflicting signals  from El Niño impacts and dynamical models . 
The outlook indicates enhanced probabilities of near-normal temperatures for 
parts of southeastern New Mexico, most of southern Texas, and for parts of the 
Southeast, consistent with the consolidation forecast and NMME probabilities. 
For the Southeast, decadal temperature trends  are positive, while negative 
temperature anomalies are correlated with El Niño conditions. 
 
The February precipitation outlook favors above normal precipitation for much 
of the south coast of Mainland Alaska and the northern Alaska Panhandle, 
supported primarily by dynamical model forecasts from the NMME and correlation 
of seasonal precipitation to Niño 3.4 SST anomalies. Above normal precipitation 
is favored from Central and Southern California northeastward into parts of 
Nevada, Utah and Arizona, consistent with canonical El Niño impacts, dynamical 
model forecasts from CFSv2 for February, and dynamical model forecasts from the 
ECMWF and GEFS models for the first half of February. Negative decadal 
precipitation trends  damp probabilities for above normal precipitation over 
this region. Above normal precipitation is also favored along the Gulf Coast 
and likely for parts of the Southeast, including the Florida Peninsula, where 
correlations of precipitation and the Niño 3.4 SST index are greatest. Below 
normal precipitation is favored from the Central Mississippi Valley, across the 
Ohio Valley, the eastern Great Lakes region, and over northern areas of New 
England, consistent with the CFSv2 model forecasts for February, and ECMWF and 
GEFS model forecasts for the first half of February.